تقدير العملة خارج الجهاز المصرفي في السودان : تحليل قياسي

الملخص EN

This study handled the problem of the currency out of banking system in the Sudan during the period (1990-2010) The study aimed at determining the most important quantitative factors for the use of currency outside the banking system and knowing their impacts on the economy.

For achieving this aim, the researcher used the econometrics methods to know the quantitative factors The econometrics model used contained (4) behavioral equations in addition to (2) identifying equations.

It was proved that all the equations of the econometrics model were over identification, and this necessitated the use of three stages least square (3SLS) for estimation .

Data were obtained, from the secondary sources, depending on fixed prices.

The researcher used advanced econometrics methods to address and correct the problems, and the use of time series methods in data processing for estimating the econometrics model.The study found out that the time series data used are stationary at difference orders for each variable.

Likewise, the cointegration test has shown residuals stationary, and the exclusion of the estimated model from spurious equations.

The diagnosis showed the existence of autocorrelation problems, which were corrected.

Then, the estimated model contained logarithmic functions and coefficient of correction AR(1), and lag data for some variables, hence, the model became free from econometrics problems.

Diagnostic Check Test was conducted by the use of Ramsey Test, and it was found out that the estimated model takes the suitable functional shape and contains the consistent variables.

Parameters stability for the estimated model was tested using Chaw Breaking Test.

The test proved that there is no existence of structural change, and consequently, the stability of the estimated parameters.The results proved that the good capability of the model for forecasting, through Theil's Coefficient values Forecasting Test results.

The study also found out that currency out of banking system in Sudan affects Bank Finance directly through weakening the granted finance, and this – indirectly – is reflected on Gross Domestic Product.

Recommendations have been reached about the aspects which depend on attracting currency inside the banking system based on the results of the study via general and specialized recommendations, and proposed studies.