قياس و تحليل معدلات التضخم في مدينة أربيل للمدة (2005-2016)‎ : دراسة مقارنة

الملخص EN

This research aims to measure the inflation rates in the city of Erbil for the period (2005-2016), and to analyze the reasons for the changes that took place in the real prices of consumer goods in that period, and to interpret it by measuring its levels.

By relying on the inductive method and comparative analysis.

And the importance of the research is evident in the economic aspects through maintenance of the general level of prices and achievement of economic and social stability by maintaining the purchasing power of individuals, which enables them to live in dignity and reduces the harmful social effects of inflation.

Since the research problem lies in the failure of achieving economic stability by means of decreasing the purchasing power of individuals due to inflation on one hand, and the economic recession due to negative inflation on the other, which leads to failure in achieving political stability through the dissatisfaction of the individuals with the economic situation and increases the harmful social effects of inflation.

and negative inflation is an unbalanced economic state and a significant decline in economic activity until it reaches a state of recession, therefore leading to a great decline in the price of commodity and services and inflation receding to less than zero.

And since the governorate of Erbil has suffered from both of these issues during the past 20 years due to two shocks; the first was the regime change in 2003, and the second was the terrorist armed invasion of the middle Iraqi cities and the oil price crash in 2014, both of which affected the sustenance level of individuals therefore the research topic has been specified as study of measuring and analyzing of inflation rates in the city of Erbil for the period (2005-2016).

The research has concluded that the first shock lead to the rising of general price level to a record height reaching (446.23% ) during (2005-2007).

It turns out that there is a consensus between the level of changes in prices (inflation rates) of commodity groups and the importance of commodities and services that are included in the commodity basket where the necessary commodities such as fuels and rentals and food articles showed high rates of inflation and in order each of luxury goods and electrical appliances and household goods and articles of clothing and fabrics witnessed slight increase in prices respectively.

And the second shock lead to a decline in economic activity which reflected through the negative inflation and the economic recession.

And therefore a great decline in the price of commodity and services and inflation receding to become less than zero, where the annual change to the general level of prices in 2016 reached (-90.90% ) in comparison to the previous year (2015), and a negative inflation rate (-5.76% ) in comparison to the base year 2007.