دراسة قياسية لأثر صدمات مكونات العرض النقدي في متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي الرئيسية في سورية

الملخص EN

This research aims at first stage to identify the historical fluctuations of the relative components of the money supply in Syria.

The monetary shocks and its effects on the key real economy variables, before and during the war, are analysed depending on the monetarist prominent studies and by using modern econometrics such as (structural, reduced, and identified VAR).

We found a weak short term effect of shocks to M1, M2 components, in particular, currency/deposit ratio, on the key economic variables like inflation & unemployment.

This is consistent with the money neutrality in the long run.