قياس أثر الدين العام على النمو الاقتصادى في مصر باستخدام نموذج متجه الانحدار الذاتى الهيكلي SVAR للفترة (1976-2018)‎

الملخص EN

The study aims to measure the dynamic effects of public debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period (1976-2018) and also to determine the type of causal relationship between them.

The hypothesis of the study was that there is a positive relationship in the long and short run between the public debt and economic growth in Egypt and that the relationship between them is unidirectional causality from the public debt to economic growth, and that public debt is the most important macro variable in explaining the variation and expected fluctuations in economic growth.

The study relied on the hypothesis test on the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, as well as Structural Impulse Responses (SIRFs), Structural Variance Decomposition Analysis and VAR Granger Causality / Block Exogeneity Wald Tests to determine the direction of the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Egypt.

The study also relied on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for Cointegration and the bound test to test for a long-run relationship.