Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models
المؤلفون المشاركون
Liu, Wen-Cheng
Young, Chih-Chieh
Hsieh, Wan-Lin
المصدر
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
العدد
المجلد 2015، العدد 2015 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2015)، ص ص. 1-11، 11ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2015-07-16
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
11
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects.
This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL) in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN) model (back propagation neural network, BPNN), a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX) model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model.
Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation.
Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations) was collected for model calibration (training) and validation.
Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation) were adopted to evaluate model performances.
Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage.
The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does.
Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases.
The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Young, Chih-Chieh& Liu, Wen-Cheng& Hsieh, Wan-Lin. 2015. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1074531
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Young, Chih-Chieh…[et al.]. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1074531
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Young, Chih-Chieh& Liu, Wen-Cheng& Hsieh, Wan-Lin. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1074531
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1074531
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر