دراسة اقتصادية لأثر السياسات الزراعية على محصول الذرة الشامية

الملخص EN

The research deals with measuring the impact of agricultural policies for the maize crop in Egyptduring the period (2000-2018), through study of production, consumption, imports, prices of maize, wholesale and retail, measurement of policy matrix analysis.

Analysis of the partial equilibrium model of maize, calculation of nominal protection factors, effective, net social returns and loss, on producer and consumer, distributional effects of producers and consumers, total government revenues, foreign exchange earnings for the maize during the study period.

It also deals with estimating the marketing efficiency, distribution of consumer Egyptian pound for the maize during the study period, estimating the consumption demand function, external import function of maize, forecasting the gap of maize until 2025, through the four standard models: Increase in demand, straight line model of trend equations, Braun single-parameter model for the double-sided exponential smoothing, Holt double-sided model for the double-sided exponential smoothing.

In order to identify the impact of agricultural policy on the maize, the study period (2000-2018) was divided into two time periods, the first period is in the period before the revolution and exchange rate liberalization policies (2000-2010), while the second period is in the post-revolution period and exchange rate liberalization policies (2011-2018), while the results of development of prices shows the increasing in the prices of producer, wholesale, consumer of maize by about 175.8% , 165.3% , 148.9% during the period policies Second about the first period of study.