قياس و تحليل محددات الطلب على النقود في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (1985- 2015)‎

الملخص EN

The research examined the estimation of the function of demand for money in Iraqi economy and determining the factors affecting it.

The methodology of the autoregressive distributed lag model {ARDL} was used to estimate the relationship in the short and long term, The study concluded that the function is affected by the following variables: GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, population, and money turnover.

There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables studied according to the Bound Test methodology, The value of the error correction parameter was negative and significant (-1.47), meaning that the demand for money requires less than one year (1÷1.47=0.7) to reach its long-term equilibrium value, which is a quick response.

Free of all standard problems, The (CUSUM) and the (CUSUM SQ) aggregate demonstrate the structural stability of the estimated model and the predictability of the model was high according to the Theil test.