التنبؤ بأعداد المدارس و المعلمين و الطلاب بمنطقة مكة المكرمة باستخدام تحليل السلاسل الزمنية

الملخص EN

This research aims to study the reality of the quantitative change in the number of schools, teachers and students of the General Administration of Education in the region of Makkah Al-Mukarramah from 1998/1999 to 2019/2020 and to predict it in the future depending on its change curve in the past through: Studying the reality and describing the quantitative change of basic elements in education during the past period.

Finding predictive values for the numbers of schools, teachers and students (boys, girls) using time series analysis "Box and Jenkins methodology" for the next ten years (up to the year 2029).

The research found that there are incremental quantitative changes in different proportions during the past period, which are logical changes due to population growth and development in all aspects of life, and it is natural that the increase in schools and teachers is associated with the increase in the number of male and female students.

The study also found an increase in schools, students and teachers during the next ten years with the exception of continuing education schools for girls as the results indicated the beginning of their decline and a decrease in the number of female students at that stage which indicates the effectiveness and impact of the literacy campaigns implemented by the administration.

This is in line with the Ministry of Education's approach to achieving the sustainable development goals by making education available to all segments of society.

Hence, planners and decision-makers can refer to the results of this research and similar forecasting research , be enlightened by them while making decisions and developing future plans.