العوامل المحددة للعرض النقدي في العراق للمدة 2003-2016 : دراسة قياسية

الملخص EN

The research aimed to measure the most important factors affecting the money supply and its growth rates in Iraq during the period 2003-2016, to determine the strength and direction of each variable in the local cash liquidity through which a suitable money supply can be found through which a monetary policy is developed that leads to price stability, inflation control and integration with a balanced fiscal policy that stimulates the economy and contributes to achieving economic development.

It was found that each of the cash circulating with individuals, the cash reserve at banks, the value of the cash multiplier, in addition to the price index, represent the most important determinants of the money supply during the study period.

A function of the type (Cobb-Douglas) was used, and that the double logarithmic formula gives the best estimate of the function, and the variables of cash in circulation among individuals, cash reserves at banks (cash basis) in addition to the value of the cash multiplier have a large positive effect on the quantity supplied of cash while it is related The price index has an inverse relationship with it, and that these variables explain about (99% ) of the variables in money supply during the study period.

On the other hand, the annual growth rate of the money supply is (19.4% ) while the growth of GDP is (5% ), meaning that there is a surplus in the money supply, as the growth rate of the monetary base is equal to (31% ) while the growth rate of the money multiplier does not exceed ( 3% ), and this shows the inability of the banking system to achieve monetary credit and create money, despite the clear control of inflation and price stability, as indicated by the growth rate of the price index (9.8% ).

In light of these results, it can be concluded that there is a large gap between the growth of the money supply and the growth of the real GDP, which led to a chronic economic recession in the Iraqi economy that requires adjusting the monetary policy in a manner that is balanced with the requirements of the financial policy, leading to stimulating real economic activity, or getting rid of Recession, adjusting the trade balance and the exchange rate, reducing unemployment, and stabilizing prices