نموذج ديناميكي لتحليل العلاقة الجدلية بين الإنفاق العام و معدلات البطالة

الملخص EN

This paper examines the dialectical relationship between government expenditure and unemployment rates in six Arab countries: Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan during the period 1990 – 2018.

The researcher built three dynamic models.

The first is a simple model included the government expenditures as independent variable and unemployment rates as dependent variable, the second model included government expenditure, exchange rates, inflation rates and domestic investment as independent variables and Unemployment rate as dependent variable and the third model included the gross domestic product in addition to the variables in the second model.

Database was built as a panel data and using Dynamic Panel-data Estimation (GMM) to analysis the data.

The results showed a weak inverse relationship between government expenditure and unemployment rates in the first and second models, while the positive correlation in the third model.

The study recommended that this expenditure should be diversified from current and military expenditure to the industrial, agricultural and service sectors, which can accommodate a large number of the unemployed in the country.