دراسة اقتصادية لإنتاج و تصدير الموز في مصر من خلال بصمته المائية و قدرته التنافسية

الملخص EN

The research aimed to identify the production situation of banana and its temporal development in Egypt and its comparative advantages between the various regions of its production in Egypt, as well as the position of its foreign trade in terms of its trade balance and its water balance in terms of the amount of virtual water in its foreign trade, and the percentage of dependence of it available for domestic consumption on internal water resources and water resources The results of the study revealed that the production of banana in the new lands, which is estimated at 22.46 tons / feddan, exceeds that of the old lands, which are estimated at 16.49 tons per feddan, or 36.2% during the average period (2010-2018).

The old lands contribute about 55% of the annual production capacity of banana in Egypt, while the new lands contribute about 45% of it, and that the area planted with banana in Egypt is increasing annually at a statistically significant growth rate of about 3.8% annually, and that the growth rate of its feddan productivity in the new lands Which took an increasing trend at a statistically significant annual growth rate of about 2.5% that exceeds that of the old lands, which is increasing at a statistically significant annual growth rate of about 2% only.

The study also revealed that the trade balance of banana in Egypt has achieved a deficit during the period (2010-2019) with the exception of the last two years 2018 and 2019, where it achieved a surplus of about 19055 and 7417 thousand dollars for each, respectively, and the deficit in its trade balance during the average study period amounted to about 9, 055 thousand dollars.

The results of the study also indicate that the amount of Egyptian exports of banana took a statistically significant increasing trend, with an annual growth rate of about 23.8% annually, while Egyptian imports from it took a statistically insignificant declining trend during the period (2010-2019).

The study revealed that the amount of hypothetical water exported abroad from the Egyptian banana exports amounted to about 7.04 million cubic meters in the average period of the study, while the hypothetical amount of water from Egypt's imports from it was about 18.65 million cubic meters, meaning it achieved water savings in its trade balance from Virtual water.

It was also found that the percentage of consuming banana in Egypt depends on about 97.7% of the local water resources and about 2.3% of the external water resources in its production.

It was also found that the total water footprint of banana in Egypt, which represents its total water consumption during the average study period (2010-2019), amounted to about 583 million m3, and that it took a statistically significant increasing trend during the study period, with a statistically significant annual growth rate of about 3.5% annually.

The study also revealed, by analyzing the competitive advantage of Egyptian banana in its foreign markets, the weakness of the market share for it in its most important import markets, namely the Jordanian market, the Saudi market, the Tunisian market and the Kuwaiti market during the study periods (2014-2016) and (2017-2019) in addition to the lack of an advantage.

Its price in those markets due to the lower export prices of most of the competing countries to Egypt in those markets than the prices of Egyptian banana in them, and the estimation of the apparent comparative advantage index value for the Egyptian banana in these markets has shown that it was less than the correct one, which indicates that there is no comparative advantage for it in that Markets.

The study recommends the following: Replacing high-yielding banana varieties with low-productivity banana varieties in the governorates of Upper Egypt, providing the necessary loans to develop irrigation systems for planting banana in old lands, reconsidering the ministerial decision to define banana cultivation areas so that it is allowed to grow them in old lands after modifying irrigation systems And planting it in new lands under the net, activating the role of cooperatives in providing production requirements as a competitor to the private sector at reasonable prices, and activating the role of the Ministry of Agriculture in providing banana seedlings with good specifications at reasonable prices.