دراسة تحليلية لتقييم إحدى المشروعات الزراعية في التكيف مع ظاهرة التغيرات المناخية بالبيئات الهامشية في محافظة شمال سيناء

الملخص EN

The natural resources (soil-plant-animal-aquatic situation) in North Sinai are experiencing a deterioration due to the impact of climatic, environmental and the human activities.

This has led to a reduction in biodiversityand desertication of wide areas in North Sinai which decrease the income of the farmers.

It important study the various effects of agriculture projects to adapt with climatic effects to achieve the desired uses of the available resources and the sustainability of these projects.

Therefore, the aim of this research is to evaluate the ability of prouject to solve the proplems of faremers in North Sinai.

The research depends on
the use of descriptive analytical approach to present and analyze the research problem as well as quantitative analysis to measure the production and economic efficiency of the project based on achieving objectives through the various statistical methods.

It also relied on secondary and preliminary data.

The predictive value of the effect of rainfall on productivity was 0.544, 0.097, -0.022, 3.419, 37.719 kg / feddan for alfalfa, barley, feed beet, pearl millet and sorghum respectively, while the predictive values of the effect of temperature on productivity were -0.523, -0.18, 4.900, 1.818, 1.493 kg / feedan respectively.

Theeffect of humidity were -0.637, 0.118, 0.861, -5.658, -28.471 kg / feedan respectively.

For the effect of wind speed on productivity, the values were -3.613, -0.112, -3.857, 6.148, -1.624 respectively
The effect of climate change factors was 15.1, 52.8, 62.8, 20.4 and 39% on the productivity of alfalfa, barley, fodder, pearl millet and sorghum crops, respectivily, while84.9, 47.2, 37.2, 79.6 and 61% were related to the effect of other environmental factors and human productivity.

For the economic evaluation of the project, it was noted that the use of integrated agricultural practices with the start of the project activities led to an evolution in the economic productivity indicators of the cultivated crops whem compared with the use of traditional agricultural practices before the start of the project activities.

(prouctivity – total costs – total revenues – net profit - ratio of revenues to costs - Investor's revenue criterion).

Therefore, the study recommends ito increase the number of agricultural projects in North Sinai, which help farmers on modern agricultural techniques in order to achieve the best use of the available resources in the studied region and work on producing new strains of crops that adapt to the conditions of the region to increase its productivity.