قياس و تحليل العلاقة بين تحرير التجارة الخارجية و النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2003-2014)‎ باستخدام نموذج (ARDL)‎

الملخص EN

With the advent of trade liberalization in recent decades, the hypothesis has drawn wide spread (Export - Led Growth) the attention of explain it and its economic performance, Rate of GDP growth (GDP), exports and imports in Iraq has reached during the period under consideration (2014 - 2003), 14.2% , 18.5% , 27.7% , respectively.

This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between The liberalization of international trade and economic growth in Iraq.

The period (2003 – 2014) using ARDL model, This research is derived from a main – hypothesis adopted in this paper is that economic growth in Iraq will benefit from the exports and imports, To achieve this hypothesis, Annual data is converted to quarterly data; as well as the use of augmented Dickey - Fuller Test, applying ARDL model and tests for the second order tests, applying and error correction model (ECM), in addition to The Test for Granger causality.

The research concluded that there is a long – run equilibrium relationship between GDP and exports and Imports, We also can see a quick response in the GDP when exports and Imports are changing.

It also shows that exports have the largest proportion; And exports account for the largest Proportion, The estimated Model Reflects A very high level of quality assessment; This also illustrate the value of the coefficient of determination amounting to (% 92), as well as the fact that the estimated model does not suffer from the problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, as well as parameters stability as reflected in CUSUM test.

The assessment results refered that a(% 10) change in exports on the long – run will lead to a(% 3.42) change in GDP, ceteris paribus.

It also refered that a(% 10) change in imports will leads to a decreas in GDP by (% -0.08), ceteris paribus and this is insignificant because P-value is more than more (% 5).

This is emphasize by the hypothesis states that “export – lead – growth”.