دراسة تحليلية للعاصفة الغبارية التي شهدها الشرق الأوسط في أيلول 2015

الملخص EN

The dust storm which hit the Middle East in September 2015 is considered to be a unique one, due to the huge quantity of loaded dust and the big covered area, in addition to its path from the Syrian-Iraqi borders toward the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, reaching Cyprus and Sinai peninsula, this path was not recorded before in the history of meteorology.

Besidethehuman and material damages.

The study was divided into stages: pre-storm stage which was a long-lasting heat wave that hit the region, and contributed to the fragmentation of the soil and the weakening of its cohesion,followed by the stage of formation dust storm caused by the effect of a thermal.

surface depression, corresponded with an upper trough.

That enhanced the vertical lifting upward movement resulting in loading high dust and sand.

After that, came the spread stage, in which an upper subtropical high dominated so it lengthened the period of the suspended dust and prevented it to dissipate.

Finallythe dissipation stage resulting from the western flow in the upper atmosphere.

This study also examined the probability of predicting this storm, for this purpose Eta Model was used by running a forecast with a base of six hours before the formation of the storm and with horizontal resolution that reaches 10km.

The attention drew in the study tothe human role in forming such storm, and the possibility of recurrence in the next time.