التحليل الاقتصادي و القياسي لدالة عرض محصول القمح في العراق للمدة (1993- 2018)‎

الملخص EN

The aim of the study is to estimate the display function of wheat crop in Iraq for the period (1993-2018) to determine the most important factors affecting the width of the crop, and the method of (FMOLS) fully corrected least squares method was used, and it included economic and standard analysis of the transactions of independent variables representing partial tendencies that the function is linear and included the function A set of variables affecting the supply of the crop.

The most prominent results indicated that the boundary price and the value of its slope (36.18839) illustrate the positive positive relationship with the supply of the crop.

As for the price of the substitute commodity (barley), the results showed the inverse relationship between the two variables and the slope value (-0.010780).

The barley crop leads to a decrease in the supply of the wheat crop, and the positive results of the moral of the variable of agricultural production support programs and the effect of the relationship between the two variables were evident.

Savings for farmers.

The results of the positive assessment of the variable of agricultural exposure and the effect of the relationship between the two variables showed the extent of slope (38.61606) This is through stimulating the private sector to trade with global markets and the trend towards the market mechanism in increasing the supplied quantities of the wheat crop, and this matter highlights the positive relationship between the two variables, and the positive results of the per capita variable of the wheat crop indicated that an increase in the per capita share of the wheat crop leads to an increase The width of the crop is by its slope (18.14187) and this shows the effect of the direct relationship between the two variables, and some conclusions were drawn, the most prominent of which is that most of the time series used were unstable or non-static in their level because they are affected by economic and political conditions and because of the presence of a trend factor that affects the same or the opposite direction.

The use of traditional methods may lead to shady results (false regression), as well as coming up with some recommendations, the most important of which is to support marketing policies that suffer from many problems through transportation, storage and mismanagement in crop receipt operations.