تنافسية صادرات البطاطس المصرية لأهم أسواق الاتحاد الأوروبي

الملخص EN

The study examines the competitiveness of Egyptian potato exports to the most important markets of the European Union by calculating the competitiveness indices during the period (2008-2017).

The trend of Egyptian agricultural exports to the European Union markets showed an increasing growth rate of about 1.3%, the trend of quantity and value of Egyptian potato exports increased at a rate of 9.2% and 8.4% respectively, while the trend of the export price of Egyptian potato is about 2.5% during the average period (2008- 2017).

There was also a positive correlation between the quantity of Egyptian potato exports to the most important European markets and the total domestic production of potatoes There is an inverse relationship between the quantity of potato exports and the total domestic consumption of potatoes, price of exporting potatoes where the 1% change in the amount of local consumption of potatoes leads to a change in the opposite direction of potato exports to Greece, Germany and Netherlands by about 5.34%, 21.8% and 7.3%, respectively.

The results of the standard estimation of the potato export target for the major European markets, using Nerlove's partial adjustment model, showed that the most important determinants of potato exports are the local potato production, the export price of Egyptian potatoes, it was found that a change of 1% in the amount of local production of potatoes leads to a change in the same direction of potato exports to the Italy, Greece by about 1.1%, 0.4%, respectively.

Change of 1% in the export price of Egyptian potatoes, which leads to a change in the opposite direction, of potato exports to the Germany, United Kingdom by about 4.2%, 0.67% respectively.

The results of the forecasting of the amount of potato exports, for the most important European markets, until 2023 indicate that the quantity of potato exports is expected to decline by 7.9%, 7.7%, 47.9% and 32.4% for Italy, Greece, U.K and Netherlands respectively from 2017.