استخدام نماذج التخلف الزمني في قياس فاعلية الانفاق الحكومي و المضاعف في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (1995-2014)‎

الملخص EN

Government spending is one of the variables that extend sway for several future periods of time, and this effect is greater in the early periods until it gradually fades over time, but this effect does not reach zero.

In order to know the effectiveness of government spending and the multiplier in the Iraqi economy over time, we have adopted models of time lag in this regard, because it provides us with the benefit of knowing the cumulative impact of government spending by knowing the long-term spending multiplier by adopting the geometric lag model of "Geometric Lay Scheme s, Koyck", to represent the relationship between government spending and GDP without the oil sector.

The researcher concluded that government spending in the Iraqi economy was not as effective as it was in correcting the structural imbalance in the economy, as its performance is limited and ineffectual during the study period.

It also found that the short- and long-term values of government spending multipliers are very small, with the exception of investment spending, which appears to be appropriate in the short term.

These results reflect the weak role of government spending in the development process and the correction of structural imbalances in the economy, due to the large leakage of government spending due to the large degree of openness to the outside, because supply is constant "i.

e.

there is no increase in the supply side corresponding to the increase in the demand side", due to the decline of the establishments and sectors of the national economy and the deterioration of its contribution to meet the need of the local economy of goods and services.