تحديد سعر الصرف الحقيقي التوازني للدينار الجزائري خلال الفترة (1986-2019)‎ : مقاربة قياسية باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع ARDL

الملخص EN

This paper aims to estimate a long-term path for the equilibrium exchange rate of the Algerian dinar for the period from 1986 to 2019, By using Co-integration method according to the ARDL model.

The findings revealed that Algeria has a time-varying long-run equilibrium exchange rate, and that its long-term behavior can be explained by each 1% increase in oil prices and degree of trade openness, resulting in a 0.1945 percent and 0.7585 percent decline in the equilibrium exchange rate of the Algerian dinar, respectively.

Moreover, every 1% increase in the size of the production differences and the parallel exchange rate leads to a 1% increase in the real equilibrium exchange rate of 0.5275 percent and 0.1625 percent, respectively.

The results also showed that the misalignment of the Algerian dinar's real effective exchange rate is corrected within Four months and 18 days.

At the end of 2003, the Algerian dinar's real effective exchange rate was close to its equilibrium level, with minor deviations.