أثر السياسات الزراعية على محصول فول الصويا في مصر

الملخص EN

The research deals with measuring the impact of agricultural policies for the Soybean crop in Egypt during the period (2000-2018), through study of production, consumption, imports, prices of Soybean, wholesale and retail, measurement of policy matrix analysis, calculation of nominal protection factors for production, nominal protection of input, cost of domestic resources, proportion of government subsidies to producers, support cost policy coefficient during the study period.

Analysis of the partial equilibrium model of Soyabean , calculation of nominal protection factors, effective, net social returns and loss, on producer and consumer, distributional effects of producers and consumers, total government revenues, foreign exchange earnings for the Soyabean during the study period.

It also deals with estimating the marketing efficiency, distribution of consumer Egyptian pound for the Soybean during the study period, estimating the consumption demand function, external import function of Soybean, forecasting the gap of Soybean until 2025, through the four standard models: Increase in demand, straight line model of trend equations, Braun single-parameter model for the double-sided exponential smoothing, Holt double-sided model for the double-sided exponential smoothing.

In order to identify the impact of agricultural policy on the Soybean , the study period (2000-2018) was divided into two time periods, the first period is in the period before the revolution and exchange rate liberalization policies (2000- 2010), while the second period is in the post-revolution period and exchange rate liberalization policies (2011-2018), while the results of development of prices shows the increasing in the prices of producer, wholesale, consumer of Soybean by about 159.5%, 184.6%, 246.8% during the period policies Second about the first period of study.

Research Recommendations: 1.

Encouraging farmers to increase the cultivated area and cultivate highyielding varieties, which leads to increase the production of Soybean, where showed a decrease of the self-sufficiency rate about 5.9% from the first period during the study period.

2.

Setting policies aimed at rationalizing domestic consumption of soybean and limiting the import of soybean, as the results of forecasting showed the quantities of soybean production and consumption until 2025, that a slight increase in soybean production is expected to reach about 15.1%, while an increase is expected Significant increase in soybean consumption amounted to about 168.5% from 2017 according to the Braun Model of single parameter for double exponential smoothing.

3.

Taking into account the social dimension, the negative effects of agricultural policies, where it was found that these policies have a positive impact on a Soybean, especially on the production, consumption side, total social returns, distributional effects of producers and foreign exchange earnings, while the implementation of these policies have a negative impact on the distributional effects of Soyabean consumers and government revenues during the two study periods.