تأثير تغير سعر الصرف على التجارة الخارجية المصرية مع أهم الشركاء

الملخص EN

Both exports and imports are one of the important strategic axes of Egypt's economic development plan, Exports are an important source for foreign exchange, and imports are a source of goods that domestic production cannot cover.

And According to the direct correlation and the impact of both exports and imports on the Egyptian economy, and According to the importance of the continuous and periodic evaluation of foreign trade to highlight the most important effects of the surrounding changes on it, The research problem is based on an assessment of Egyptian trade with the most important partners in light of the exchange rate change and in the form of the following question: Are exports and imports between Egypt and its most important partners reaching their desired levels? Does the exchange rate have an effect on it? So that the objective is to compare the actual situation with the forecast for both exports and imports, whether at the country level or for the average years for the two periods (2013-2015, 2017-2019) (Before and after exchange rate change).

The research was based on data for 20 countries in the case of exports, 33 states in the case of imports as the most important business partners with Egypt, the gravity model has been used with the use of the estimation method for mixed data and the use of the Hausman test to prefer between the two random and fixed effects models.