استشراف مسار حوادث المرور خلال السنوات الخمسة القادمة في الجزائر باستخدام أسلوب (بوكس-جينكنز)‎ (Jenkins-B)‎

الملخص EN

Traffic accidents have seen an alarming increase, coupled with their associated adverse impacts, especially human loss: number of road fatalities and impairment cases, in addition to the socio-economic impacts.

Road crashes problem is a persistent one whether in Algeria or in the whole ArabWorld.

The increasing number of road fatalities and other associated loss urge the need for addressing traffic accidents; forecasting their trend and proactively preventing them: it is thus the duty of researchers to develop predictive models for the future trends of traffic accidents and for their implications.

This study is intended for predictive modelling based on previous traffic accidents statistics during the period (1970-2019).

Box Jenkins Method was used with a view to tracking accidents and effectively forecasting their numbers in the next five years.

Study summed up with mechanisms for determining the elements of this problem, and with findings, which would significantly contribute to providing elements for future planning.

Findings would also help develop better ways for tackling causes of road traffic accidents and preventing their adverse impacts at local level.

In the near future and upon development and adaptation, such ways will be generalized at Arab World level.

Study findings are envisaged to pave the way for remedies and training programs mitigating the negative consequences of traffic accidents and cutting such accidents to zero.

This is the positive impact to which community members are looking forward, and which would curtail the recent soaring trend of traffic accidents.