الآثار الاقتصادية لسد النهضة الاثيوبي على الميزان المائي المصري و القطاعات المستهلكة للمياه

الملخص EN

In view of the many challenges facing the development and meeting the development needs in the waterconsuming sectors in Egypt, and due to the emergence and emergence of the problem of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its negative effects on the clear decrease in Egypt’s water share, although until this stage (2021) the period of filling the reservoir of that dam has not been determined, And if the actual negative effects of it and the extent of its severity affected by that period, the main objective of the research is to study the economic effects of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Egyptian water balance and the water-consuming sectors, which are agriculture, drinking water and industry, and the research reached several results, which are as follows.

By studying the effects of the implementation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the supply of Egyptian water resources, it became clear that the deficit in the supply of these resources ranged between a minimum of about 5.55 billion m 3 in the case of filling the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam over ten years (Egypt’s view), which represents 10% of Egypt's share of the Nile River's water resources reached a maximum of about 18.53 billion m3 in the case of filling the reservoir over 3 years (Ethiopia's point of view), which represents about 33.4% of Egypt's share of the Nile's water resources.

The amount of the deficit borne by the agricultural sector ranged from a minimum of about 4.22 billion m 3 in the case of filling the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam over ten years.

This would lead to a decrease in the amount of water destined for agriculture to drop from 61.63 billion m 3 in 2020 to reach about 57.41 billion m 3 , and a maximum of about 14.08 billion m 3 in the case of filling the reservoir over 3 years, which leads to a decrease in the amount of water destined for agriculture to reach 47.55 billion m 3, which leads to a loss of agricultural land ranging from a minimum of about 864 One thousand, representing about 9.3% of the total agricultural land, amounting to about 9333 thousand, and a maximum of about 2,886 thousand, representing about 30.9% of the total agricultural area, which results in a decrease in agricultural production and a negative impact on the trade balance This is due to the decrease in exports and the increase in imports to fill the deficit resulting from the decrease in agricultural production and the increase in population.

Net plant income decreased by a minimum of about 20.92 billion pounds, representing about 9.4% of total net plant income of about EGP 222,426 billion in 2019 to EGP 201.1 billion, representing about 6.4% of total agricultural income of ABOUT EGP 324,811 billion to fall to EGP 303.9 billion, A maximum of 69.8 billion pounds, representing about 31.4% of total net plant income to reach about EGP 152.6 billion, represents about 21.5% of total net agricultural income to fall to EGP 254.9 billion, which negatively affects Egypt's national income.

The amount of the deficit borne by the domestic sector ranged from a minimum of about 788 million m3 in the case of filling the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam over ten years, which resulted in a decrease in the amount of water directed to the domestic sector from 11.53 billion m3 in 2020 to about 10.74 billion m3 And a maximum of about 2.63 billion m3 in the case of filling the reservoir over 3 years, which leads to a decrease in the amount of water destined for this sector to reach about 8.9 billion m3.

This increases the economic burdens on the state represented in the costs of desalinating sea water and harvesting rain to provide potable water.

The amount of deficit borne by the industrial sector ranged between a minimum of about 372 million m 3 in the case of filling the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam over ten years, which resulted in a decrease in the amount of water destined for the industrial sector from 5.4 billion m 3 before filling the dam to reach about 5.03 billion m3, and a maximum of about 1.24 billion m3 in the case of filling the reservoir over 3 years, which leads to a decrease in the amount of water destined for this sector to reach about 4.16 billion m3.

which hinders the development process.