فرضيات كالدور و دور الصناعات التحويلية في النمو الاقتصادي بالمملكة العربية السعودية

الملخص EN

This study aimed to test the applicability of the three Kaldor’s Hypotheses, and to estimate the effect of the manufacturing sector on economic growth and labor productivity on KSA using time series annual data for the period (1990-2018).

The study based on some of the analytical econometric methods.

It used Unit Root tests for stationary of time series for each of the following variable, manufacturing output, GDP growth rate as a proxy of economic growth, labor productivity in manufacturing sector, and finally labor productivity in non-industrial sectors.

The study also used “Johansen” test for Cointegration, Error Correction Model, and “Granger” causality test.

The results showed a long-run relationship between these three variables and the growth of the manufacturing sector.

The direction of causality is being from the manufacturing sector to economic growth, as well as from the manufacturing sector to the labor productivity in this sector and nonindustrial sectors.

The error correction term for the dependent variables of the three Kaldor’s Hypotheses was found to be negative and statically significant for each variable.

The coefficients of elasticity of the dependent variables in the long run were found greater than in the short run.

This reflected higher relative impact of the growth of manufacturing output on the three dependent variables.

This confirmed that three Kaldor's hypotheses were applicable to Saudi Arabia during the study period.