قياس و تحليل أثر الاقتراض من صندوق النقد الدولي (IMF)‎ على التنمية الاقتصادية في العراق للمدة (2004-2018)‎

الملخص EN

This study dealt with the basics of both loans and the gross domestic product with the effect of the International Monetary Fund loans as an independent variable on the economic development in Iraq for the period (2004-2018).

The GDP in dollars is adopted as an indicator, which is the dependent variable, by analyzing the study variables economically by analogy.

The descriptive and analytical approaches are used in analyzing the data of the independent variable and the dependent variable, and according to the tests of Dickey Fuller Extended (FDA) and Phillips Peron (PP), the degree of integration of the study variables was found to be a mixture of type I(0) and type I(1).

Estimating the autoregressive model for distributed slowdown periods, and according to the boundary test of covariant integration, there is ence of a covariant relationship, which means that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable.

This is confirmed by the ence of a causal relationship in any direction between the IMF loans and the GDP, as well as the error correction limit in the model is negative and less than the correct one (-0.09), but it is not significant, and this is a second confirmation of the lack of common complementarity between the two variables.

All standard quality tests are performed, and the rest of the model is not distributed naturally, and the residual squares test proved that the model under study is unstable for the period from (2011-2018).

This means that foreign loans are not been in line with the GDP since the end of the year 2010, and this may be due to the effects of the mortgage crisis that occurred in 2009 and cast a shadow over the oil prices on which Iraq depends in the formation of the gross domestic product by a large percentage.

And the purpose of the loans is to patch the budget deficit and to pay off the government's obligations so as not to move the wheel of the economy or productive investment that enhances economic growth to an extent that makes it compatible with economic development.