أثر السياسات الاقتصادية الزراعية على الوضع الراهن لمساحة و إنتاجية محاصيل الحبوب في مصر

الملخص EN

The agricultural sector is the main pillar of the Egyptian economic structure,as it generates agricultural income that contributes significantly to The Egyptian national income, as well as providing the industrial sector with its needs of raw materials of agricultural origin, as well as grain crops are considered one of the most important agricultural food groups human and animal, as well as secondary uses and other for them, and achieving self-sufficiency of those crops is a national goal.

The cereal group includes wheat, rice, sachets and barley.

The problem of research was that despite the nutritional and economic importance of grain production at all local, regional and national levels in Egypt, there is a lack and instability of local production of grain crops, which poses a risk to the place occupied by this production in the Egyptian economy as a result of the unstable political and economic conditions and the policies of economic reform in addition to the problem of water shortage, which affects the objectives of agricultural economic policies to achieve self-sufficiency from food sources and face the needs of the Egyptian consumer.

The research aimed primarily at demonstrating the impact of agricultural economic policies aimed at increasing the agricultural production yield of grain crops, whether through horizontal expansion in their cultivation or attention to technical aspects and the use of modern techniques for agriculture and irrigation by highlighting the development of the status of production, area and productivity of grain crops during the period (1997-2017).

The research also relied on published and unpublished secondary data issued by official bodies, including the Arab Organization for Development, the central body for public mobilization and statistics.

In addition to some previous research and studies related to the subject matter of the research.

The research also relied in its analysis of the data obtained on the methods of descriptive and quantitative economic analysis of the phenomena studied, in addition to the use of many mathematical and statistical methods, by estimating the mathematical averages of phenomena and percentages of their changes, as the study relied on the method of multi-linear decline with the introduction of variables variables variables DummY^ and the use of number indexs, to separate the effect of certain variables with common effect and overlapping on some of the phenomena studied.

The most important results were: 1.

Crop composition in Egypt during the first two comparative periods (2004-2010) and the second (2011-2017) increased the relative status of cereal groups, sugary crops, vegetables, fruits and oil crops, and the relative low standing of green feed groups, fibres and legumes for the base period (1997-2003).

This means that with the succession of years and stages of complete liberalization and the state's approach to programs more than economic reforms have been accompanied by a trend of farmers to increase the relative status of human food crops, especially grains at the expense of animal food crops, as it turns out that the third and fourth rank was occupied by the area of the group of vegetable and fruit crops, while the greens occupied the third place.

2.

The average annual cereal production in Egypt increased by 2,299,857,000 tons between the base period (1997-2003) and the first comparison period (2004-2010), and an increase of 12.00%.

The average annual cereal production increased by 3,148,571,000 tons between the base and second periods, equivalent to about 16.50% of the base period.

3.

The annual average of Egypt's total wheat production increased by 1,437,857,000 tons between the base period (1997-2003) and the first comparison period (2004-2010), an increase of 22.6%.

4.

The average annual gdp of maize increased by 332,000 tons between the base period (1997-2003) and the first comparison period (2004-2010), with an increase of 5.40% from the base period.

Also about 297, 875 thousand tons, equivalent to 89.72% of the total increase in production between the two periods.

5.

The average annual average of total rice crop production was increased by 561,000 tons between the base period (1997-2003) and the first comparison period (2004-2010), with an increase of 10.00%.

6.

It was also found that the annual average annual output of the barley crop increased by 42,286,000 tons between the base periods (1997-2003) and the first comparison (2004-2010), representing about 36.10% of the base period.

The study recommends implementing effective strategies and policies using agricultural and price policy tools as well as scientific research in coordination with the sectors concerned with agriculture such as water resources and irrigation, supply and internal and external trade.

With attention to the development of new varieties and encourage scientific research in the field of increasing the productivity of a hectare of grain crops to increase their contribution to total production.