دراسة تحليلة لمحصول القطن في مصر

الملخص EN

This research aims to identify the current situation of the area, production and productivity of the cotton crop, and the reasons that led to the decline of both the area and the production of Egyptian cotton during the period from (2000-2017), In addition to estimating the supply response functions for the cotton crop, In order to identify the degree of farmers ’response to farm prices and some important economic variables that are supposed to affect the area cultivated from cotton.

It was found from the results of the research: There is a statistically significant decrease in the cultivated area of cotton, estimated at 29.8 thousand feddan, at a rate of about 6.7%.

The results of estimating the supply response functions for the cotton crop using the supply response functions in the multiple linear image indicate that increasing the area cultivated for cotton by one unit in the previous year will lead to an increase of the area cultivated for cotton in the following year by 0.57 thousand feddan.

And that increasing the cultivated area of the summer tomato crop by one unit in the previous year leads to a decrease in the area cultivated of cotton by 0.07 thousand feddan in the following year.

It is estimated that an increase in the agricultural price of the rice crop by one pound in the previous year would lead to a decrease in the cultivated area of cotton by 1.87 thousand feddan in the following year.

It is also estimated that an increase in the total acre costs for cotton by one pound in the previous year will lead to a decrease of 0.19 thousand acres of cultivated area of cotton in the following year.

It is estimated that an increase in the net yield of the summer tomato crop by one pound would lead to a decrease in the cultivated area of cotton by 0.016 thousand feddans.

The cotton trade balance achieved a statistically confirmed annual deficit of about $ 14.1 million, equivalent to about 18.3% of the average value of the increase in the trade balance.