تقدير معامل الأمن الغذائي لأهم المحاصيل و السلع الغذائية في مصر

الملخص EN

The estimation of the food security coefficient of cereal crops and the most important food commodities in Egypt is important in order to clarify the development of the strategic stockpile and the food security coefficient, and this part includes an assessment of the food security coefficient of the most important cereal crops and the most important food commodities in Egypt that include two periods, the first period (2000-2009), The second period (2010-2017), through several steps to estimate the economic variables related to how to estimate the food security coefficient, so that the value of this coefficient and its interpretation for each crop can be finally reached, by showing the development of production and consumption capacity of the most important groups and plant food commodities, And the general time trend equations of the development of production and the area cultivated for the most important groups of food commodities in Egypt during the two study periods, up to the determinants of the food security factor of the commodities and plant food groups in Egypt and clarification of the development of the strategic stock and food security factor of the cereal groups in Egypt The average period of sufficient production for consumption of wheat is about 176 days in the period (2010-2017) in light of the available for consumption and both production and imports and exports of wheat and flour, and the average period of import coverage for consumption is about 176.6 days, and the decrease in the period of sufficient production for consumption is considered The domestic and increasing the period of import coverage for domestic consumption is a negative indicator, leading to a deficit of strategic stocks estimated at about 587.4 thousand tons of wheat, and the food security factor for the average period is estimated at (- 0.0316), which means Egypt's ability to achieve its relative food security and approval Partially on now Production The average production adequacy period for consumption of maize is about 198.8 days in the period (2010-2017), and the average period of import coverage for consumption is about 154.6 days.

A strategic stock deficit is estimated at 425.34 thousand tons of maize, and the food security coefficient is estimated at (-0.0314) for the study period, which means Egypt's ability to achieve its relative food security from maize and its partial dependence on production The average production adequacy period for consumption of rice is about 370.4 days in the period (2010-2017), and the average period of import coverage for consumption is 5.1 days.

The strategic stock is estimated at about 80.7 thousand tons of rice, and the food security factor is estimated at about (-0.0831) for the study period, which means Egypt's ability to achieve its relative food security from rice and its partial dependence on production Egypt relied on abroad to meet its oil needs by about 42.7% on average during the same period, The dependence of Egypt on foreign oils ranged between a minimum of 35.4% in 2016, and a maximum of about 50.9% in 2011 and 43.3% in 2017 The period of sufficient production for consumption of oils in Egypt during the same period ranged between a minimum of about 179.1 days in 2011, and a maximum of about 235.8 days in 2016, as well as about 206.7 days in 2017, and a decline of 29.1 days from its counterpart in In the year 2011.