النماذج المناخية و التغير المناخي في الحوض الشرقي للبحر المتوسط

الملخص EN

Climate models are considered the main tool in evaluating actual climate change, and to predict future climate.

Best types of such models are dynamic models, which evaluate the impact of expected increase of greenhouse gases upon greenhouse effect.

They also represent present climate systems including its entire elements.

Climate models can providegood results when they are applied on the entire world, but it does not give the same accuracy when regional level is concerned, specially the Eastern Mediterranean corner, due to relief and climate variation and high content of dust and seasonal climate variation.

Main objective of this study is conducting a comparison between such climate models evaluation in the eastern Mediterranean with local results obtained by applying different statistical methods such as CUSUM, Moving Averages and Linear Regression.