ملامح البعد التنموي لمستقبل الاقتصاد الجزائري في إطار جائحة كوفيد 19 : دراسة قياسية لآفاق 2024

الملخص EN

In light of the efforts and precautionary measures of the Algerian government regarding the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic with the expectation of the relative and gradual recovery of oil prices in global markets, this study aims to foresee the future levels of GDP in Algeria for the period 2020-2024, using the “Box-Jenkins” methodology.

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The study, according to the chosen and estimated model ARIMA( 1.

1.

1), concluded that the future levels of GDP in Algeria are directed towards recovery in most of its sectors, as the level of GDP in the horizons of 2024 will reach 20474.

34 billion DA with a growth rate of 1.

48%.

However, we see These future expectations regarding the recovery of the Algerian economy and its exit from a state of stagnation remain dependent on the extent to which its structural imbalances are addressed and the efficacy of government policies, as well as on the speed of the epidemic's demise