أثر بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على استقرار القطاع المصرفي الخاص في العراق للمدة 2010-2019

الملخص EN

This study aimed to analyze and evaluate the impact of some macroeconomic variables on banking stability at Iraqi private banking sector, the study problem was bodied in asking main question, what is the impact of some macroeconomic factors on the banking stability of the private sector, and how the banking stability can be measured and whether it can rely as an early warning system for banking crises? The subject has acquired exceptional importance in an unstable financial and economic environment almost going on banking imbalance stumbling blocks, that's why it's in the urgent need to know the level of banking stability and thus take procedures to face and prevent occurrence of banking crises.

The study reached a set of conclusions, the most importance are: 1.

The direction and the level of banking stability for the private sector was on the rise during the period of study, due to the interest of private banks in banking standards and indicators set by the Central Bank of Iraq and international committees specialized in banking during the period of study, where it recorded an average of 0.875, which is a good percentage.

2.

There's a positive significant impact of some economic variables together in the banking stability index, where the adjust coefficient of determination reached (62.3% ) according to that the researcher concludes that improving banking stability for the private sector derives its characteristics and components from improving these economic variables, as the impact relation of GDP and oil prices was in a positive direction, while inflation, interest rates and current account status the impact relation were negative with the bank stability index.

The study also presented suggestions consistent with these conclusions, the most important of which is the private sector banks need to commit to the procedures and ratios set by the Central Bank, those one which related to indicators involved in banking stability, in addition to the need for a specialized department to analyze the economic environment variables and determine the directions of these variables and the size of their impact on banking stability and thus potting scenarios to face these variables.