توظيف التحليل التكراري المقارن للأمطار اليومية القصوى في تقدير احتمالية هطولها بمنطقة عسير

الملخص EN

This study is based on the rain data recorded during the period 1971-2017 at the stations of Abha (A005-13), Al Tajer (A108-23), Al Amer (A103-18), Al Soudah (A118-28), Al Namas (A007-15), Balsamar (A127-34).

), Bani Thawr (A113-26), Tanumah (A120-30), Khaybar Al-Janoub (B110-73) and Subh Balhamar (A117-27) supervised by the Ministry of Electricity.

The frequency analysis is used to estimate the maximum daily rainfall in the Asir region (The Southwest of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia).

The studied stations and the rain data were chosen because they represent an integrated and common time series that helps analyzing the temporal and spatial variations of the maximum daily rain, and applying the requirements of frequency analysis to estimate the maximum daily rainfall rates expected in the return periods from 5 to 100 years.

The Asir region was is considered a distinct mountain region, and an area characterized by the great urban development, expanded at the drainage areas of the various wadis, which cross a number of cities in the region.

Therefore, this study aims to estimate the maximum daily rain can generate the floods affecting directly the urban and residential in the region .

The study methodology depend on the integrated employment of several statistical tests, which are the Shapiro-Wilk test, the Leven test t, the ANOVA.

The probability distributions of Extreme Values (type 1), the normal distribution, the log-normal distribution, the logarithmic Pearson distribution (type 3) and the exponential distribution are applied in analyzing the comparative rain frequency.

The goodness of Fit of rain data used The Chi-Square test to determine the best probability distribution and the Chow model was also applied in estimating the maximum daily rain amounts of the return periods from 5 to 100 years.