اقتصاديات التغير المناخي

الملخص EN

This research analyses how climate change and climate change policies may affect the macro economy and the central banks’ monetary policy and inflation.

it also examines the interaction between macro-financial and climate-related risks.

this research focuses on the channels through which climate change and the policy and technological responses to climate change could have an impact on the real economy.

physical impacts of climate change as well as the transition toward a low-carbon economy constitutes significant challenges for macro-financial stability, as they can damage the balance sheets of governments, households, firms, and financial institutions due to the adverse impacts on investment and economic growth, fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt sustainability, and the valuation of financial assets.

the existing literature suggests that climate change will have demand-side implications, but will also cause a negative supply shock in the next decades and may disrupt the economic and financial system.

the rise in the costs resulting from an increased incidence of extreme weather conditions is evident.

the direct effects of climate change are likely to increase gradually over time as global temperatures increase.

nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain reliable estimates of the overall macroeconomic impact of climate change, which will also depend on the extent to which it can be controlled through mitigation policies requiring structural changes to the economy.

in order to implement such policies political economy obstacles will need to be overcome and the underlying market failures will need to be addressed.

they could involve significant fiscal implications, with an increased price of carbon contributing to higher overall prices.

however, these measures could also foster innovation, generate fiscal revenues and reduce inflationary pressures as energy efficiency increases and the price of renewable energy decreases.