دراسة اقتصادية للفجوة الغذائية من القمح في مصر لمواجهة بعض الأزمات

الملخص EN

The research aimed at estimating the size of the food gap of wheat in Egypt during the period (2000-2019), estimating the most important factors that affect it, and evaluating the price policy affecting wheat production, where the research relied in statistical analysis on some descriptive and quantitative statistical methods.

The results showed an increase in the area of wheat and the quantity produced during the period (2000-2019) with an annual growth rate of about 1.62% , 1.71% respectively, the results also showed an increase in the quantity of imports, consumption and the wheat gap at annual rates of about 0.44, 0.523, 0.385 million tons, representing about 5.2% , 3.4% , 5.3% of the average of about 8.52, 15.32, 7.23 million tons respectively, during period (2000-2019).

the self-sufficiency ratio decreased at an annual rate of about 0.86% , representing about 1.61% of the average period of about 53.5% .

The food security coefficient declined from 0.35 as an average for the period (2006-2012) to 0.28 as an average for the period (2013-2019).

This may be due to low supply price and the agricultural policy's failure to keep pace with the level of population growth and high prices, which negatively affected on food security during that period.

The results showed that the net yield of feddan of wheat in the previous season was the most important variable affecting the cultivated area of wheat.

It was also found that the agricultural price policy was in the disadvantage of wheat producers during the period (2015-2020).