محددات الادخار المحلي في المملكة العربية السعودية : في إطار نموذج ARDL

الملخص EN

The objective of this study is to measure and determine the direction and nature of the most important and most effective economic determinants on the domestic savings behavior in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period 1970-2017 to identify the appropriate policies that stimulate the increase of domestic savings.

To achieve the objective of the study, (An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Apporocach (ARDL) was applied.

The results of this study showed a long-term relationship between the variables of the study.

It also showed a negative and significant effect of the dependency ratio -in the long term only- and the government expenditure , while a positive and significant effect of both GDP and current account on domestic savings.

On the other hand, both the interest rate and the inflation rate did not show a strong impact on their shortterm or long-term effects, as a result of their lack of significance, or their dual influence.

The estimated value of the adjustment indicated that the size of Saudi domestic savings needs about 1.2 years (one years and two months) to adjust towards their equilibrium value after the impact of any shock in the model.

Therefore, this study recommends the development of long and short-term policies that stimulate positive independent variables, especially GDP and current account, and reduce the impact of negative independent variables, especially the dependency rate in Saudi households, on domestic savings in Saudi Arabia.