تحليل اقتصادي قياسي للطلب على واردات المملكة العربية السعودية باستخدام الصيغة التفاضلية لنموذج روتردام

الملخص EN

The research goal is estimating Saudi Arabia imports demand during the period 1994-2000 on the basis of quarterly data for all imports by broad economic category which contain seven groups, food and beverages, materials and supplies, fuels and lubricants, machinery and capital equipment, transportation equipment and accessories, consumer goods not elsewhere specified and goods not elsewhere specified .

Rotterdam demand differential approach has been estimated using iterative seemingly unrelated regression technique to estimate the model parameters.

Estimated coefficients were used to calculate the uncompensated price elasticities and income elasticity.

The study achieves some results as follows: The price and income variables have significant effect on demanding all groups whit negative sign which consist with economic theory.

where the demand of food and beverages is effected by changes in the own price and the prices of materials and supplies, machinery and capital equipment, and goods not elsewhere specifies, while the demand of materials and supplies sensitive for all groups prices except goods not specified.

On other hand, demand for fuels and lubricants affected by the price of consumer goods not specified whereas demand of machinery and capital equipments is effected by the prices of food and beverages and materials and supplies.

Further, demand for transportation equipment and accessories sensitive to change in materials and supplies prices where the demand for goods not specified is sensitive for changes in materials and supplies prices and fuels and lubricants prices.

The income elasticities of all groups included in the study are positive and significant.

Income elasticities for fuels and lubricants, transportation equipment and accessories, goods not specified are grater than one meaning they are luxury goods.

Additionally, income elasticities for food and beverages, materials and supplies, machinery and capital equipment and good not specified are less than one, meaning they are necessity goods.

In addition, the uncompensated own price elasticities have negative sign for all groups included in this study and significant.

The absolute values of elasticities are ranged between zero and one for all groups except machinery and equipment, which means inelastic demand for these groups.

For machinery and equipment groups the elasticity absolute value is grater than one which means an elastic demand for this group.

Further more, the demand for goods and beverages group, fuels and lubricants groups, machinery and equipment group, transportation equipment group and goods not specified group are more sensitive for change in income than change in prices while demand for materials and supplies group and consumer goods not specified are more sensitive for changes in prices than changes in income.