الإنفاق الحكومي و تأثيره على الأنفاق الاستهلاكي الخاص : طريقة متجه الانحدار الذاتي

الملخص EN

Using a vector auto-regression approach (VAR), this paper mainly studys the effect of the government domestic expenditure, and other variables, on the behavior of the private consumption in Saudi Arabia during the period 1960-1997 by analyzing the response of the latter to the structural shocks in the former.

the findings are as expected; that is the government domestic expenditure plays the most important role in explaining the behavior of private consumption, especially in the long run.

the second important factor is the money supply, paricularly in the short run.

furthermore, the inflation and the real income come third and forth in importance, respectivily.

these results are of vital importance for policy makers who are involved in the setting of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing economic activities.

the results of the paper indicate the great importance of government domestic expenditure in determining the fluctuations in private consumption expenditure compared with other explanatory variables in the model.

since private consumption represents the bigger percentage in national income, policies aimed at atabilizing this variable are particularly important.

based on the foregoing results, measures to stabilize government domestic expenditure may be one of the most important of these policies.