العلاقة الديناميكية بين سعر الصرف وميزان المدفوعات الجزائري: دراسة اقتصادية قياسية للفترة الممتدة ما بين (1990-2020)‎

الملخص EN

This study aims to reveal the dynamic relationship between Algeria's official exchange rate and the balance of payments from 1990 to 2020.

using econometric methods, VAR vector autoregressive model, we focus on the evolution of Algerian Dinar exchange rate and total balance of payments.

through VAR, granger causality test, analysis of variance and impulse response function analysis, the results show that due to the wrong estimation of exchange rate and exchange rate changes the results of variance analysis show that exchange rate changes have no impact on the improvement of the general balance of payments in the short term, but have a certain impact on the improvement of the general balance of payments.

unlike oil prices, which contribute to the medium-term stability of the balance of payments, Algeria's economy has experienced a series of crises and shocks, which have affected Algeria's macroeconomic balance the nature of a country's rent-seeking economy is similar to the Corona Virus pandemic and the fluctuation of oil prices in the global market.