محددات الواردات في الاقتصاد اليمني باستخدام التكامل المشترك و نموذج تصحيحٌ الخطأ

الملخص EN

This study dealt with the analysis of import determinants in the Republic of Yemen through Eviews program technology for the period (1990-2014) using the method of joint integration and error correction model.

It aimed to find out the extent to which domestic income, exchange rate, local prices and foreign reserves influence the demand for imports in the short and long term.

The results of the study, that the main element in determining imports is domestic income in the short and long period, as the marginal tendency parameter for imports was 0.32 in the long period, 0.27 in the short period and shows the significance and quality of that relationship.

It showed that the value of the correction factor parameter is (-0.94) and indicates that the equivalent of 94% of imports in the period (t) are corrected from the imbalance of its equilibrium value in the period (t-1), in order to return to balance in the long run.

The high parameter of the marginal propensity for imports and the insignificance of the parameter of the exchange rate indicate the failure of liberalization programs, represented in the lack of flexibility of imports to decrease the exchange rate or replace the consumption of local goods instead of imported in response to economic reform programs.