أثر تقلبات أسعار النفط على الأداء التجاري في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي ذي الفجوات الزمنية الموزعة Ardl، خلال الفترة 2000-2019

الملخص EN

This study aims to know the impact of oil price fluctuations on trade performance in Algeria, through a standard study in which we used the autoregressive methodology for the distributed time gaps, it was applied to annual time series for both trade performance and oil prices from 2000 to 2019.

With regard to the data on which the study was based, we obtained oil price data from the EIA website, and the series of trade performance data was based on World Bank data.

The study concluded that the oil market was characterized by fluctuation and high sensitivity during the study period, especially in recent years, when the intensity of the shocks that affected oil prices increased.

The study also found a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and trade performance, this means that in the long run, trade performance in Algeria is closely linked to changes in oil prices, since this relationship is inverse and significant, in the long run, exports in Algeria expand during periods of high oil prices, and consequently, the trade balance deficit decreases, and contracts in periods of decline.

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