مقارنة بين طرائق التنبؤ لسلسلة اعداد المصابين بالأورام الخبيثة في محافظة بابل

الملخص EN

Time series analysis gives a great importance for prediction and proposed many methods for forecasting life and social phenomena.

.

The goal of this research is due to the importance of comparison between deferent methods of prediction especially linear and nonlinear ones and Exponential smoothing methods.

The comparison based on different indicators such as the mean square error (MSE) and mean olute error (MAE) and mean olute percentage error (MAPE), to predict the future values of the not seasonal time series models.

The suggested and fitting model is (Linear Trend Model), and has been applied to the observations represent monthly of series numbers of the patient's with malignant tumors in Babylon.