تحليل العلاقة بين الضرائب الجمركية و أسعار الصرف في العراق باستعمال انموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع (ARDL)‎

الملخص EN

The customs taxes are prominent in the financing of the state revenues, they achieve additional income for the general budget, which works to alleviate the fiscal deficit, and highlights the impact of these taxes clearly if they are managed properly free of administrative and financial corruption and work to achieve their economic, social and political objectives, Accounting for one-third of tax revenue in developing countries.

This study is based on the hypothesis that the effect of change in the exchange rate is effective in increasing customs taxes through a long-term balance between them.

And by measuring and analyzing the relationship between customs taxes and exchange rates.

The results of the standard models were obtained using the ARDL model, which is one of the advanced standard methods.

This model is based on the time series stability test and gives results on the nature Short term relationship (error correction model) as well as long term results.

The study reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship as well as the short-term relationship between the variables of the study.

The rate of adjustment of the customs duties function was 0.52.

Therefore, the imbalances that could occur will be corrected 52% And its return to long-term equilibrium value