دراسة أثر بعض التغيرات المناخية على إنتاج الرمان في الأراضي الجديدة

الملخص EN

The phenomenon of climate change is one of the important issues raised at the global level, as it constitutes one of the threats to sustainable development and achieving food security.

It is expected that Egypt will be one of the countries most affected by the effects of climate change represented by rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels, especially The areas of the Nile Valley and the Delta and some new areas, and that the agricultural sector is one of the sectors that will be most affected by climatic conditions, as climatic changes affect the productivity of agricultural crops, especially fruit crops, especially the pomegranate crop, which in turn needs specific climatic conditions for growth and maturity.

The research aims to study the impact of climatic changes on the productivity of the pomegranate crop and measure the effect of some climate factors on it.

tons, and its productivity was about 7 tons, while Assiut governorate occupied the first place in productivity for all governorates From the geographical distribution and productive merit of the pomegranate crop, its cultivation has spread according to the relative importance of the area in eight governorates, namely Nubaria, Assiut, New Valley, Beheira, Ismailia, Suez, Beni Suef and South Sinai.

The results of this test showed that Assiut governorate came in the first place with a productivity estimated at 14.8 tons, while the Nubaria region came in the fifth place in terms of feddan productivity with 6.80 tons.

Cold, rain, wind and humidity, and one of the thermal needs for pomegranate is zero growth, which reached about 12 degrees Celsius, which is the minimum for the growth of pomegranate trees, and the optimum temperature is between (38-21) degrees Celsius and the accumulated temperature for the pomegranate crop is between (3400-2500) degrees Celsius, and an acre of pomegranate needs about 817.7 m3 of water, which is known as water metering.

The surface irrigation rate is about 65%, the crop coefficient (KC) is about 2.82, and the evaporation / transpiration coefficient (ETO) is about 1400.2 mm.

From the statistical analysis and using the multiple regression model to identify the climatic factors affecting the productivity of the pomegranate crop, and through the regression equation, it was found that there is a direct relationship between rain, surface moisture, and feddan productivity, that is, by increasing these elements, increasing the productivity of the acre, and an inverse relationship between each of the maximum temperature And micro, wind, frost, and transpiration, where by increasing these elements the acre productivity of the pomegranate crop decreases, and among the diseases that affect pomegranate are the pomegranate fruit worm, aphids and the pomegranate stem borer.

The fruit cracking is one of the most important diseases that affect pomegranate, and it is a physiological disease that affects both large and small fruits, in the case of predicting the productivity of the pomegranate crop without taking climatic changes into consideration, as the productivity was predicted without the impact of climate changes on it.

During the period (2021-2025), it was found that the productivity reached 7.5 tons / feddan in 2020, and increased to about 8.05 tons / feddan.

n the year 2025.

Whereas, in the case of predicting the productivity of the pomegranate crop, taking into account climatic changes, the most influential factors on productivity were studied, which is the maximum temperature and evaporation / transpiration.

feddan of pomegranate crop to 6.9 tons / feddan