اتجاهات أعداد المقبولين (تنبؤ)‎ في كلية الإدارة و الاقتصاد بجامعة كربلاء باستخدام منهجية (Box-Jenkins)‎

الملخص EN

Prediction of accepted numbers trends in the faculty of administrative sciences of university of Aden by using (Box- Jenkins) systematic methodology.

The research is aiming at analyzing the time series by using (Box Jenkins) patterns through different anhytic stages (diagnosis, estimation, diagnosing strutting or testing the pattern accuracy, prediction) to find out the prediction pattern of accepted number trends in the faculty of administration & economics at university of Karbala depending on annual data between(.

and through estimating the coefficient of partial and subjective correlations, and using unit root testing Dickey and Fuller and the Augmented unit root Dickey – Fuller, it was perceived that the series of the trends of annual accepted numbers were nonstationary, concerning unit root testing we find the time series of students, numbers of the faculty of administration & economics between (١٩٩٥-٢٠١٤) is nonstationary which indicate seasonal effects in addition to the effects of the general trend, and to be statioriary the initial differences we retaken therefore the time series of students, numbers between (١٩٩٥-٢٠١٤) becomes stationary after taking the initial differences.

We came to a conclusion that the appropriate pattern for this series is the pattern ARIMA (٤٬١٬٤) is the best pattern, because the norms Akaike and Schwarz are achieving the minimum value and the determining coefficient R-squared is at high value ٠٫٨٠.

Arriving at the best pattern which is ARIMA (٤٬١٬٤) Y =-٣٣٫٣٠٧٨٧ – ٠٫٣٠٤٧٣٤Yt-٤ +٠٫٩٢٣٠٩١Et-٤Consequently, there is a transition to the prediction stahe of students numbers in the faculty of administration & economics until the year ٢٠٢٥ toward the illustrated table (٤).