بناء نموذج للتنبؤ بالعجز المالي للموازنة العامة باستخدام الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية

الملخص EN

The advanced technology and using the computing systems led to the comparative traditional and modern methods which finally resulted in using the artificial neural networks techniques to predict financial deficit the previous study the difficulty of flowing prediction, and what cause of bankruptcy and financial shortage and.

the traditional methods are suffering from estimation weakness this paper aims to apply the economic units by using modern styles of financial deficit.

the main goal of this paper is using a modern technical style called the artificial nervous networks.

the financial deficit has a progressive important that aids the economic unit to plan and control due to the weakness.

the researcher relied on the following hypotheses: 1- there is an impact in case of using artificial neural networks financial deficit estimation through the previous planning and making the proper solutions.

2- the use of artificial neural networks will decrease the financial prediction gap for the next few years, and also confronting the financial crises.

in order to achieve the goal of this paper, the ministry of finance in Iraq was selected, and the datum were collected by using the brain storming strategy.

the budgets samples were applied by using the (Neuframe 4) program for the next few years prediction.

tow samples were built for the monetary flow prediction and financial deficit.

many results were made such as the artificial nervous network model were developed for the financial deficit of 92.25 these models showed an extraordinary ability for the Iraqi general budget indicators prediction in future the general details of the budget are note require.