أثر تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام الدولية على الإيرادات العامة في الجزائر خلال الفترة 1990-2020 : دراسة نظرية قياسية باستخدام ECM

الملخص EN

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on public revenues in Algeria during the period 1990-2020.

Given that public revenues are one of the two sides of the state’s general budget, the latter is the mirror that reflects the state’s activity, and given the important percentage that oil (petroleum) collection occupies from the structure of public revenues, and with international crude oil prices being characterized by fluctuations that are difficult to predict .

We considered measuring this effect size and trend in the short and long term using cointegration and error correction model (ECM mode).

As prior knowledge of the effects resulting from fluctuations in international crude oil prices on the state's public revenues, will contribute to directing the state's economic policies in line with providing the appropriate conditions to curb the negative impacts and achieve economic development.

Where the study found that: in the short term, a change in the logarithm of crude oil prices by 1% leads to a change in the average logarithm of Algeria's public revenues by 0.13% and in the same direction, and the coefficient of the error-correction term of about - 0.11 suggest that only 11% of the discrepancy between long term-term and short-term Algeria revenue is corrected within a year, suggesting a slow rate of adjustment to equilibrium.