تحليل اقتصادي للصادرات المصرية لمحصول البرتقال باستخدام نموذج الجاذبية

الملخص EN

 The study reached the following results: 1- There is an annual significant increase in both the quantity of production and the quantity and value of Egyptian exports of oranges, equivalent to about 3.9% , 11.03% , 8, 5% of the annual average.2- The average orange exports power took a general, increasing and statistically significant trend The annual increase amounted to about 2.72% , with an annual increase rate of 8.1% .3- It was found that the most important importing countries from the Egyptian oranges are Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, China, the UAE, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Bangladesh, where each of them occupied the first to the eighth positions, and the average percentage of the quantity imported from Egyptian oranges was about 19.42% , 19.02% , 8.98% , 8.31% , 6.75% , 4.95% , 4.88% , 3.54% .4- The results of the basic gravity model for the orange crop proved that when the GDP of the selected countries increases by 10% , it leads to an increase in the amount of Egyptian exports of oranges to these countries by 18.95% , while the significant effect of the geographical distance between Egypt and the countries where If the geographical distance increases by 10% , it will result in a decrease in the Egyptian exports of oranges to these countries by 18.93% , with the stability of other factors during the study period.