العلاقة بين السياسة النقدية وخاصة تأثير سعر صرف الدينار العراقي على بعض مؤشرات التنمية الاقتصادية في العراق للمدة (2003 - 2018)‎

الملخص EN

The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between economic development and monetary policy in Iraq for the period 2003-2018, the exchange rate as a model.

Unstable security, terrorist operations, and other economic and political matters, all these situations and events led to the destruction of the economic structure of Iraq, and the research aims to verify the nature of the relationship between (monetary policy represented by the exchange rate) and economic development on the other hand, and the impact of the policy was measured and analyzed Cash in achieving economic development in Iraq for the mentioned period, using modern standard models based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), to estimate the short- and long-term relationship through standard procedures, and using the statistical program for standard analysis (EViews 10).

And one of the most important of these conclusions that the research reached is that monetary policy is determined according to the philosophy of monetary theory and the trends of the ruling political system, and monetary policy constitutes an important tributary of the tributaries of the state's economic policy that the central bank seeks to carry out through specific procedures and measures to achieve certain goals, the idea The main point of contemporary monetary theory is that changes in the amount of money can address economic imbalances and lead to economic stability.

Monetary policy is one of the ways that can be adopted to maintain economic stability.

The research concluded that the exchange rate is one of the most important economic indicators that play a large and important role in Determining the monetary policy of the state because it is affected by many indicators of economic development, and the increase in the money supply has negatively affected the value of the Iraqi dinar, which led to a deterioration in its value and a rise in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market due to inflation, and the results of the model evaluation show The benchmark has positive (direct) and moral effects on (Ag) the agricultural sector and (BP) the balance of payments And (T) for the trade sector in the exchange rate, and that each indicator has a negative (inverse) effect and a significant impact (AGDP)) for the average per capita GDP and (I) the industrial sector and (RGDP) the GDP of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate in relation to the currency The US dollar is in the parallel market, and as such monetary policy seeks by targeting the exchange rate to achieve monetary stability, it is necessary to work on developing clear policies to control exchange rates by controlling the factors affecting the exchange rate, and finding an exchange rate system that is compatible with economic changes