ديناميكية التغيرات في أسعار (الدولار، الذهب، النفط)‎ و أثرها على المتغيرات الاقتصادية بالأردن

العناوين الأخرى

The dynamics of changes in prices (Dollar, Gold, Oil)‎ and its impact on economic variables in Jordan

مقدم أطروحة جامعية

المجالي، ديما فارس محمود

مشرف أطروحة جامعية

المجالي، خالد

الجامعة

جامعة مؤتة

الكلية

كلية إدارة الأعمال

القسم الأكاديمي

قسم اقتصاديات المال و الأعمال

دولة الجامعة

الأردن

الدرجة العلمية

ماجستير

تاريخ الدرجة العلمية

2019

الملخص الإنجليزي

This study aims to simulate the dynamic behavior of the global prices - gold and oil prices corresponding to the US dollar - demonstrating both short- and long-term casual relationships between them, and indicating the effect of those relationships on the actual and effective exchange rate in Jordan ; also, its states the indirect effect of dynamic variables of the aforementioned prices on the Jordanian economic variables, which enhances the importance and uniqueness of the study’s axis.

The obstacle that confronts this study is the roles and variation from the global dynamic movements ; particularly in gold and oil prices in correspondence to the US dollar, which requires a thorough understanding to their impact on the economic variables of Jordan as it is one of a small economy affected by other large economies.

Study variables used here are: gold prices corresponding to the US dollar, oil prices corresponding to the US dollar, actual effective exchange rate in Jordan, real gross output, net debt on the central government and trade balance.

The study period consisted of quarterly data from 2000 to the second quarter of 2018 using VECM error correction model ( VECM ).

The study concluded that there is a positive relationship between the global prices of gold and oil in the short term, similar to the long-term inverse relationship between them in the long term.

The study concluded that there is an inverse relation to the international prices of gold and oil on the effective actual exchange rate in Jordan, followed by indirect relationships of statistical significance found on the macroeconomic variables in Jordan.

The study concluded the importance of taking advantage of the nature of the relations between the three angles of the common trinity - dollar, gold and oil - both in short and long term, in order to maintain balance in the outputs of the global and local economy correspondently.

التخصصات الرئيسية

الاقتصاد و التجارة

عدد الصفحات

84

قائمة المحتويات

• APA
• MLA
• AMA

لغة النص

العربية

نوع البيانات

رسائل جامعية

رقم السجل

BIM-1402748