نمذجة الطلب العائلي على الكهرباء و التنبؤ به في ولاية و رقلة باستخدام منهجية Box-Jenkins

الملخص EN

This study aims to model the household demand for electricity in the province of Ouargla and to provide a reliable forecasting model.

The focus of this research is on univariate models for short-term forecasting.

We used the monthly time series data for household electricity demand in Ouargla for the time period from January 2014 to December 2019.

The different techniques of the Box-Jenkins stages were also used: identification, estimation, diagnosis and forecasting with the help of statistical software Eviews v.

12 and Gretel.

The results showed that the SARMA(1, 0, 5) (0, 1, 0)12 model is the appropriate model for the data of this series according to some appropriate accuracy criteria.

Diagnostic tests have also shown that this model is stable and therefore suitable for prediction.

Forecast of household electricity consumption for 24 months in Ouargla State which may assist in planning for maintenance and follow-up of the existing electricity supply system in the State has been presented.

Moreover, it can be used as a support to improve the quality of electricity services in the state due to its geographical and climatic specificities.