قياس أثر الائتمان المصرفي في الأنشطة الإنشائية والصناعية والتجارية على النمو الاقتصادي السعودي : دراسة تطبيقية

الملخص EN

The study aimed to test and measure the long-term equilibrium relationship between bank credit in construction, industrial and commercial activities, and economic growth in Saudi Arabia.

the researcher relied in his study methodology on several quantitative tools started by verifying the stability of the time series of the independent and dependent variables through the augmented dickey-fuller (ADF) test.

then by conducting the Johansen co integration test to test the true relationship between variables in the long term, then measuring the effect of bank credit in construction, industrial and commercial activities on the growth of GDP at constant prices in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2010 =100) through error correction model (ECM).

the study reached several important results, the most important of which are the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable.

the results showed the existence of four equations that achieve co integration between study variables.

the empirical results showed that the change in the growth rate of bank credit in construction activity in the long term by 1% leads to a positive change in the growth rate of GDP at constant prices by 3.989315%.

the empirical results also showed that a change in the growth rate of bank credit in industrial and production activity in the long term by 1% leads to a positive change in the growth rate of GDP at constant prices(2010 = 100) by 0.513979%.

the empirical results also showed that the change in the growth rate of bank credit in commercial activity in the long term by 1% leads to a change in the growth rate of the GDP by -4.524563%.

as for the coefficient of the speed of adjusting imbalances in the error correction model (ECM), it is equal to (1÷0.033718), that is, during approximately 29.66 years, the variables return to their equilibrium again.

as for the most important recommendations of the study, it was necessary to take a package of policies in Saudi banks to increase bank credit allocations directed to construction and industrial activities and rationalize them in commercial activity, while providing and facilitating long-term financing for industrial and construction sectors and activities.